Round 13: This boyband just got a backup dancer

[benjimcfly]

Just starting the thread here. I just want to give out a few fresh thoughts:

1) I was NOT planned for a tie. That's why I was flustered at the revote. Usually, we, as production, can predict every vote. I had zero fucking clue that Racheal was going to vote for Hannah. Phew. 
2) You all. You top 9. You're all playing very well. Not to diminish the playing or players who have fallen before you; but all 9 of you are actively playing your unique individual games and doing very well. And it's kind of inspiring to watch. Thank you for making this such an amazing game to watch. 
3) I'm not sure how to rank the remaining players in this game. For the first time, I am not sure who's in the best position or who is in the worst position. Sure, there are some top 5/bottom 5 conversations to be had, but everyone is really in a very transformative position for themselves. 

I'll check back in 24 hours, where I'm sure things will change, but this moment is nice. 

The obvious moment here, for me, is Racheal's vote tonight. She is filling a role as a player I've seen a few times before. The person who is perceived to be someone who takes marching orders. Racheal started the game with someone who heavily considers many angles, who is thinking on his feet and is often relaying scenarios. In their conversations, Michael would lament and discus many options with Racheal and she would offer her perspectives. It was dominated by Michael, sure, but it was a partnership. Once Michael left, I think people wanted to try and help fill some direction for Racheal... but it ended up sounding like a sales pitch (or some other near analogy that's lost on me right now). At the end of the night, Racheal was very much the swing vote (when this morning, I thought it was Taylor). Do I think she made the right choice? ...for her game? yeah. For her longevity in the game? Maybe not. She took a big risk, but I think it's going to work in her favor. It's early to tell. I love this happened. It's nice to see people fill some specific roles and this feels like a very significant round. And...with Live Night 2020 around the corner. You love to see it. 

Also, I'm listening to Jake and Tati right now. It's 1:24AM EST and Jake is chewing very loud food. He's notorious for this, and I felt the need to document it. Kyle is usually the victim. Jake and his 1AM snacks. Love it. 

[benjimcfly]

After I left a day + 1/2 go by, I have a bit of a better view on how everyone is doing this round. Here's my brief summary:

1. Taylor

This is a loose prediction, but Taylor seems to be dirtying her hands the LEAST this round. She got to Kyle and convinced him this was all Frances' idea (the Tyler flip-vote). No one has mentioned getting rid of her and no one really mentions being threatened by her. She's in good with everyone and will most definitely survive Live Night. What's more enticing to think about... if/when Frances is voted out in 9th place, she will most likely give the Legacy advantage to Taylor. I hope she uses it to blindside someone at Live Night...

2. Jake

Not much to say here other than: I don't understand why they haven't tried to vote him out AND Jake is playing absolutely masterfully. Jake can win this season (I've said it many times). He's created bigger targets in Kyle, Matt, Frances, etc etc. 95% chance he will wink and smile his way to Final Tribal Council and possibly a win. No one is targeting him this round. Why not? No clue <3.

3. Matt

Matt is in a good position this round. He has the idol. He has allies he can trust. He has alliances. However, he is definitely on everyone's radar. He might be a name tossed out for Live Night, but I don't see him being a real target until after Live Night.

4. Tati

Tati is in such a great position, but last round, people started to notice that. It's only so long until she's thrown under the bus. As for this round, she formed a new alliance (Tati's Angels) and has the majority (I think). She has a chance of making it to FTC with Jake, but I don't see how she beats him. 

5. Hannah

Hannah is finally off the table as someone to go home. She's anchored by her lack of relationships. Her #1 in Racheal is gone, but she's still savvy and a good talker. She will be alright, but people have this weird image that she can win this game... which I think that perception might tip the scales if she made it to FTC. 

6. Racheal

Racheal has so much potential, and we are seeing it. She's in an alliance with Jake/Matt (The Golden Girls) and she's finally picking up momentum. Will it last? Will she make a big move? Time will tell. There are a lot of voices in this game, and she may not be heard. But if she keeps going rogue, people might start listening... Otherwise, Andrew/Hannah/Frances are all upset with her last round (rightfully so). However, those three are in the minority.

7. Kyle

Kyle is ready to vote out his number one (or ex-number one) ally to align himself with the number one person who will win this game if he gets to the end - Jake. Kyle is set on acting emotionally this round. I've been there and it feels good, but I don't think voting out Frances is the right move here. At least, not if he wasn't pushing her so hard. I feel like this is "his move" and it's not the move it may seem. I really hope that his game improves, but it's hard to get that momentum, especially with this cast. 

8. Andrew

Andrew was setting himself up for an interesting story arc last round. Then Racheal flipped. His game has started to fall apart with his allies, including Jake. Jake has zero interest in taking him to the end, and Jake will vote him out at Live Night, as a safe second vote. Tati doesn't want to work with him either, but more as a safety precaution. Ugh, I hate to see it .

9. Frances

</3. Girl, Taylor took advantage of you this round. Win immunity. If you don't, you're the live night vote 1 boot. ((((((((((((((((((((((((

[benjimcfly]

Winner Pick: Jake!

I don't see how he doesn't win at this point. Like I've said, no one wants this win as badly as Jake. He has the most information. He has the most alliances. He is a returning winner. No one cares or notices.

[benjimcfly]

At final 9 last year, I did a "Most likely to make it to FTC list" and "Most Likely to win if sitting at FTC". I've got a little time, so let's do this!

Most likely to make it to FTC:

1. Tati
2. Racheal
3. Taylor
4. Jake
5. Kyle
6. Matt
7. Hannah
8. Andrew
9. Frances

I know that Andrew is in the middle, and I said he might be voted out on Live Night... but there are too many questionable factors going into vote #2 at live night. He could be a goat type, at this point. Racheal is likely because she's least threatening, and we've reached the point of "big targets need to go first". Jake will probably be a late game boot, but he also might snake his way into FTC. Tatiana seems like a lock, in my eyes. She's the perfect middle of the road type of player who will be overlooked leading up to tribal. Kyle is too likeable and he's cutting his own allies.

Most likely to win at FTC:

1. Jake
2. Matt
3. Taylor
4. Hannah
5. Frances
6. Kyle
7. Tati
8. Racheal
9. Andrew

This is all pure speculation. If Jake and Matt don't make FTC, then one could argue that 3-7 are all nearly tied, with some caveats. I think Andrew and Racheal have the biggest deficits to win. Others haven't perceived them as big players, although we still have 6 vote outs remaining...

[benjimcfly]

I'm watching this call with Kyle and Taylor right now. Kyle may be in a better position than I thought, because this connection between them feels genuine. Like, I think Taylor would want to go to the end with Kyle. I also think Taylor is on a warpath and will do whatever it takes to get to the end.

Either way, this energy he has on the call feels so much better than his other conversations. I was tired of seeing a sad/dejected Kyle. This feels right. I cannot WAIT for Live Night!