Round 12 - Unjustified Confidence

[Ricky]

[ashley]

Love Michael. So interested in the behind the scenes and always asking questions trying to understand everything and help others. He and Racheal will be friends for life I think, and I love that he is looking to vote for a winner that has made active moves ❤️

Had a great time watching him play!!!

[ashley]

One of my fave messages/pics from Michael 

Attachments:

[karen]

I'm going to miss Michael so much in this game! He's one of two of my ORG bbs/recruits in this game. He was so invested and he's a good sport. I'm sad that he gave up his Idol last round, only for Tyler to give it to Frances and a loss of control in his game, but that was only the last part of an overall good and entertaining game played by Michael. I'm proud of him for making merge and jury, and for finding an idol! He also had a good read on his OG tribe dynamics once the game really started moving. He is a caring person and it's been fun watching his expansive mind for the game.

[karen]

Saw these cakes at the grocery store and made a meme. I like my stuff to have flavor, so I bought marble and it was so good.
I'm sad to see all the POC gone from the game; I'd like to challenge the cast to actually answer the questions: Why did all POC leave pre-jury and why aren't any of them in jury? Don't write it off with some game related BS; it's more than that. Think about why your alliances turned out the way they did, think about the ppl you decided to help and the ones you didn't. 
Even though I think my meme is funny, I still hope you all think about my question. 

Attachments:

[benjimcfly]

This one is for Kyle and Matt:

JAKE TOLD HANNAH TO VOTE MICHAEL. WHY DO YOU BELIEVE EVERYTHING JAKE TELLS YOU?

[benjimcfly]

There's a lot going on, but not a ton to summarize. Mostly because this whole shitshow was created by Jake and now he is lying his ass off to everyone about it. Only the boys believe him... oh and by boys, I mean Kyle and Matt believe him. Andrew and Tyler know that Jake is trying to pull some shit. I'll get to that.

Leading up to the vote, Peak 5 (Tyler, Matt, Jake, Taylor, Frances) pulled in Jake to make their majority 6 (The Sex....tuplets. Yep. That's the majority alliance's name). Meanwhile, Matt, Kyle and Jake are playing both sides. I would try to describe what their plan was, but it was so haphazard, I don't think I would get it straight. As the day was going on, Jake was getting more and more paranoid. It began with Jake being paranoid about Tyler. He was convinced that Tyler was going to jump ship with the girls and vote him out. He convinces Matt to play up that this idol is the MERGE idol (which it wasn't), so that people would think that there are less idols out there. Jake tells Kyle that he's afraid of Tyler. Tyler had zero plans to do anything than what was planned with the Sextuplets.

As the day goes on, Michael is being sus to Jake. He keeps insisting "I don't care who goes home, so long it's Taylor or Frances". Like, bro. Pick a fucking name. Anyway, Jake convinces Michael to make a chat of the voting bloc that Jake is lying about being a part of.

MEANWHILE, Hannah, Tati, Taylor and Frances make a group chat. They've been wanting to, as the girls have been getting closer over the last few days. They have a quick girls group chat and Jake gets on call with the fake voting bloc group. There are ZERO girls on the call (Tati, Racheal and Hannah were supposed to be on the call). Jake immediately gets paranoid about a girls alliance. He texts both Kyle and Matt some MAYDAY messages. They are both like "bro what?". Jake says "Matt, we need to talk as soon as this call is over, the girls are planning to vote against us". Keep in mind, this is about 15 minutes before tribal.

Jake then gets on call with Hannah, because Hannah says "I know Michael's name is out there. Should I vote with you all and vote Michael or what should I do?" Jake tells her to jump on board and vote Michael with them, because why not. As soon as that call is over, Jake calls Matt and rambles at him about how there is a conspiracy theory to get out either Tyler or Jake himself. This is all completely 100% false. Jake decides to take it upon himself as tribal is beginning to tell all of the guys "Just trust me, vote Hannah".

So Jake is going to: Kyle, Andrew, Michael, Tyler and telling all of them "VOTE HANNAH JUST TRUST ME" and Matt and Michael are like "oh okay". Kyle and Adnrew are all NOT on board. They're freaked out that Jake is changing their very elaborate plan on a hunch and good for them for not budging. At this point, Jake has convinced Matt, Michael, Tyler and in turn Racheal (by way of Michael) to vote for Hannah. Unfortunately, Andrew and Kyle just didn't like this last minute scramble, so they stuck to voting for Michael.

Here's the deal, leading up to the vote, I had no clue who was going to vote for who. The plan was looking like Michael, and Frances and Taylor were probably going to get maybe 1 or 2 votes each, resulting in a 7-2-2 or something. It ended up being a 6-5 vote. It was an iconic tribal council. Jake played an idol. Frances played an idol. Neither received any votes. Michael goes home in a nail biter.

After the vote, there are two key calls (which I will post the content to below). Hannah/Tati/Racheal and Kyle/Jake. In Hannah/Tati/Racheal, Racheal is a mess, because she was just told to pick between two of her closest allies (Hannah and Michael) and to pick which one she wanted to save/vote for. She went with Michael, because they've been number ones since the start. Racheal was emotional and bothered how it all happened, which made Hannah cry. Tatiana hears from Tyler during the call and confirms that all of this was Jake's doing. Tyler confirmed everything that happened and basically says "Jake went nuts", fact.

Meanwhile, on Kyle/Jake, Jake is flying off the handle and telling Kyle all of his conspiracy ideas. Then he creates a lie: Tell everyone that Racheal confirmed a girls alliance (to help support Jake's crazy theory) and put ALL OF THIS on Michael, so that no one can double check the truth. Anyway, this idea is terrible, as everyone is already realizing that Jake did all of this. Jake also says a few hurtful things to Kyle (at least, they would piss *me* off if my ally said them to me). Kyle decides to basically sink his teeth into Jake and do his bidding. Although this should be the end of *Jake's* game, this will actually be the cementing downfall of Kyle's game. Kyle is losing trust in Taylor and Frances. He already lost Andrew. Tyler is losing trust in him. All he has is Jake... and Jake is a sinking ship after this round :\. Jake might be able to save his game, but he will take you down with him, Kyle.

Things are crazy. I think that Jake manifested a girls alliance that wasn't really a thing. Well, Jake. It exists now. And it's going to kill your game.

[benjimcfly]

Current rankings:

1. Taylor

Taylor came out on top this round. She was a target going INTO THE VOTE. At one point, I was concerned that the vote was going to be so twisted that she might be sent home. She didn't play an idol and received zero votes. When you're a target in a survivor game, people usually pull back a bit if you survive the vote. I don't anticipate Taylor being targeted by anyone for a hot minute. She is on the peripheral from everyone, she's getting closer to the girls, she's getting closer to Tyler and no one is upset with her. I honestly think this round propelled her to a spot that will take something catastrophic to knock her down... then again, last round *did* actually happen.

2. Frances

I only put her below Taylor because she played an idol, and that usually sketches people out who didn't know she had it. She's in a great position with Taylor, who she said she is slowly transitioning away from Kyle and onto Taylor. This is a brilliant call and move by Frances. Kyle is literally a sinking ship and is doing whatever Jake wants. The closer you stick to him, the more likely you are to get voted out. I imagine that Frances will vote Kyle out as a last option (maybe final 7?). She doesn't need him anymore, especially after this last round. I'm sure she will continue to share info with him and call often, but she will cut him when it's right.

3. Tatiana

Tatiana is in about the same space she was earlier. She wasn't a power player in this round and I think Jake is very sus of her now that she didn't vote with him. He grilled her after the vote (I think that's in the video I'm going to post) and he knows she's playing a decent game. She's in good with the girls, with Andrew and with Jake. Honestly, everyone likes Tati. I think she will be the "everyone likes them" boot down the road, because she is a key player/talker in most people's games. Either way, I don't see Tati going anywhere for at least a few rounds.

4. Andrew

Andrew keeps impressing me from round to round. He may not be able to find an idol clue, but he can definitely see through people's alliances. In his most recent confessional, he clocks Jake for trying to control the round through his paranoia. He is getting better allies in the girls and he wants to work with them. He's still covertly playing along with Jake, even though he knows that Jake is a sinking ship. Kudos to Andrew for reading everything perfectly and setting himself up to be in people's plans for a final 5 (Taylor/Frances just said they want to take him to F5). That exceeds my original expectations, on top of exceeding what I thought would happen last round. Again, Jake's mess is Andrew's benefit.

5. Racheal

This is a tentative spot. Racheal was just robbed of her #1 and her #2 just received the other 5 votes. The girls want to scoop her up, but they know that they don't NEED her. Plus, if they want a sacrificial lamb to prove there isn't a girl's alliance, they can offer Racheal. She's more a contingency plan, but that's decent for her. She could benefit from this crazy round, like others, or it might be a slow dissolve into jury.

6. Hannah

Hannah is in an OK spot for just having barely survived tribal. People are happy they saved her, but she's trying not to overreact to the vote. The problem is, everyone is reading her non-reacting as her rolling over and just giving up. She isn't at all, but this game matters what others see. I think Hannah will be okay, but she is slowly gaining traction as a threat to win. She could make some key moves and could bounce back, but I think she's going over her options currently. She knows that Jake came after her, but she played it off well with all of Jake's lies. She confirmed everything Jake told her was bullshit, but he thinks they're good, so she has a nice middle spot for me.

7. Jake

Honestly, Jake shouldn't be this high up. In my opinion, he should be the next boot. But he has tossed so many lies into people's heads that no one knows what the truth is of what happened this round. Jake, I predicted you WINNING last post. Now, I'm not sure if Jake will make top 5. Jake was in such a good spot, then he got paranoid. He knows what he did and he's going to work like hell to dig himself out, but your theatrics last night showed others how dangerous you really are. I still think there's a chance he can dig himself out, but it's slim.

8. Kyle

Kyle has given up playing his own game. I'm honestly shocked he didn't vote for Hannah after Jake asked him to. Kyle has resorted to following Jake's plan and doing whatever Jake wants. That was a decent plan until Jake went nuts this round. Frances just mentioned on call that Kyle should be voted out around final 8 or 7. I am sorry this is Kyle's write up, but he really didn't do much this round. He won immunity, both others provided that benefit. He kind of sat back and waited for the plan to pan out, which in hindsight, is the correct move. So kudos there, Kyle. If he had a chance to calm Jake down before tribal, he would be in a much better position. Unfortunately, his days are now numbered.

9. Tyler

Tyler is in a tough spot. He's not close enough with anyone to fully save him this round. The boys aren't close to him (due to Jake purposefully distancing everyone away from him), nor the girls. Tyler is a vote that people can use and I think he could convince someone of that. As of now, he's a safe vote to cut down the boys. The girls want him out because he voted for Hannah and they perceive that he's with the boys. It makes sense on paper, but Tyler truly has no one, and he might suffer because of it. It all comes down to this round. If Tyler survives this round, he might be around for a few more. Time will tell, but he and Matt are on most people's minds.

10. Matt

Matt is only here because he has an idol. He should play the idol on himself this round, but I think that Jake will convince him to give it to him. Matt might go this round, but he has the connections and track record to recover. I think he's going to lean on Jake and he will fall on his sword for him. Womp.


Winner pick as of Today: Taylor!

[benjimcfly]

Final 11 tribal council:

[benjimcfly]

Final 11 fallout conversations:

[benjimcfly]

In the video above, these are all calls that happened directly after the vote:

-Sextuplets
-Hannah/Tati/Racheal
-Sextuplets
-Hannah/Tati
-Kyle/Jake
-Hannah/Tati/Taylor (and eventually Frances)
-Tati/Tyler
-Tati returns to Hannah/tati/taylor/Frances
-Back to Kyle/Jake
-Jake/Tati

[benjimcfly]

Tribal is in 30 minutes.

I'm already second guessing my rankings. This Taylor/Frances flip is going to tank one or both of their games. I still think Kyle is screwed after, as he will probably make a hard turn against Frances/Taylor. At that point, he's practically stuck working with Jake and Matt. Which is great for his longevity, but not great for his chances to win.

After all the slighting I've done on Kyle (so sorry about that, but I get emotional when I write these up), I do think there's a chance he can save his game. He needs to get Jake or Matt out, and get in tight with the latter... then get them out at final 4? Ugh. Man... Kyle... you really put yourself in a corner with who you can work with. I really hope you find a way!

Jake has the read on this tribal. He just told Matt "Tyler could go home with 6 votes tonight". I know we get frustrated with people following him around, but with READS LIKE THAT, how could we not stan? Ugh. Jake, I just needed you to be humbled a bit, and now I'm back on your bandwagon. You can do it!