Round 11 - Who do I vote for?

[benjimcfly]

WHAT A MESS THIS ROUND WAS HOLY SHIT

I'm going to detail out how this round went down... the best I can. There's so many moving pieces and it is such a shit show. I like bullet points and lists, so, without any further ado:

• Tyler/Frances/Kyle/Matt/Erica/Taylor are the losers of this competition. As soon as I saw the results, I said aloud: oh great. Peak 5 (Tyler/Frances/Kyle/Matt/Taylor) are going to vote out Erica. Fact.
• Peak 5 immediately gets on call and say that they should try to get idols, so they can plot a bullshit vote and gain power.
• Matt convinces Jake to give him the idol. Tyler is given a marching order from Michael to use *his* idol to get out Frances, Kyle or Taylor. Tyler pushes for a name, but Michael doesn't give a fuck, as he isn't close with any of them.
• Tyler individually tells everyone in Peak 5 about this exchange. Matt tells no one about his idol. Jake tells Tati.
• Peak 5 makes an elaborate plan to double idol out Erica. It would be a 2-2-2 vote and Tyler/Matt both play idols, as they're not an OG Manaslu.
• Everyone else is expecting a Tyler vote, with a possibility of Matt. Erica knows its her because they are doing NOTHING to subside her anxiety. 
• KYLE TELLS JAKE THE WHOLE FUCKING PLAN OF PEAK 5. This is in caps because I consider it a bad move for Kyle, but a GREAT position for Jake. 
• Peak 5 votes out Erica 5-1, as they planned. Erica isn't shocked and she peacefully exits (YOU DIDN'T DESERVE THIS ERICA!).
• After the vote, Peak 5 stays on the call for a good 15 minutes. They prepare their remarks and the he said/she saids. The rest of the tribe is antsy to call and gets on a tribe call. 
• Peak 5 does an average, yet a little sloppy, follow up to their fake double idol play. Matt and Tyler are still holding on to the idols. Hannah seems mildly skeptical. Andrew is EXTREMELY sus of this whole fallout, because he was closest with Erica. Andrew tells Jake and Tatiana that he doesn't trust those 5 and he is spot on. 
• Jake gets pulled into a potential alliance with Hannah/Racheal/Michael/Tatiana. 
• Jake has to lie to everyone because Kyle told him the whole plan. Peak 5 each approach Jake individually and give him the "we didn't use any idols, yay!"

In summary, Kyle propelled Jake into the best possible position, socially. He's the 6th member for Peak 5 in this final 11. He's being roped into an alliance with Hannah, Racheal, Michael and Tati. He is now Andrews #1 ally. Kyle bent over backwards to give Jake everything he wanted, and as of last night, Jake wanted more. 

So... the night before all of this happened, I was on a call with Jake and Kyle. Jake was pushing Kyle very hard to be included in all of his plans. As you see above, Kyle did exactly as he asked. Cut to Jake and Kyle's call just after this shit show and Jake basically says to Kyle "I am the next target. Go to Tyler, ask him for his idol. Bring it to me. I need safety." I think Kyle is actually going to do it.

I never thought Kyle would be the henchman to Jake, but he's done everything he's asked to put Jake in the best position in the game... and wants him to give him more. If Kyle actually does get Tyler's idol, I'm considering canceling the season and awarding the best player all time award to Jake.

I don't know how Kyle would agree to this. Jake is the swing vote between the alliances and everyone wants to protect him. He doesn't need Tyler's idol, but I think he's pushing Kyle to see what he will actually do for him. Kyle hasn't said no to this plan, yet. He's done everything for Jake and has zero plans to get him out. Only Tatiana (Jake's REAL number one) has that planned. This is such a mess... and I'm here for it .

[benjimcfly]

Player breakdown from Round 11:

1. Jake

Jake is in a great, however very delicate, top position. I say that because he's technically in a great spot. Everyone wants to work with him, but one slight movement, and Jake could potentially be the next boot. *It could even be in this round*. But as of today, he painted a huge target on Tyler's back and it's got Peak 5 pissed at him and Hannah/Racheal are sketched out by Tyler. Now that Matt found the merge idol, I fully believe he will give Jake the idol and that will protect Jake, if worst comes to worst. Just like in the season that he won, everyone is giving him 100% true information and he's controlling the narrative of the game. Tatiana still wants him out, but even she admits that she is giving him the best information she has. Kyle is doing everything to make Jake more relevant that he already is. Michael respects and wants to bring him in. Andrew is all in with Jake. The only other person sus of Jake is Taylor. He has nothing to worry about, in my opinion... at least for this round.

2. Tati

Tatiana is in about the same position as last round, hence her moving down. She needs to be constantly improving her game, but she's currently cornered with Michael, Racheal and Hannah. She still has Jake as her number one and NO ONE is thinking of targeting her. Even today, Kyle said something in an alliance chat to the tune of "Maybe we can bring in Tatiana after this vote". If that's true, that would be her key into winning this game. She just needs to get Jake out.

3. Frances

Frances is still in a great spot. I feel as though she is the most protected in Peak 5. Matt is a challenge beast, Kyle is becoming too big of a player and everyone sees it, Taylor doesn't have the bonds that Frances has and Tyler is slowly moving toward the outs. No one is saying her name, but they recognize her as being a key player in a lot of people's alliances/duos, speculatively. Frances also has the clout to help choose the next person to be booted. She's playing a great middle of the road game, but I still think she will need a stand out move or two, prior to final 5/6. I think she's capable of doing it, but I also think she's very complacent in her alliances.

4. Matt

Matt is slowly digging himself out of the challenge beast picture painted of him. He has Jake's idol still, and, as of this morning, found the merge idol that Taylor/Frances/Kyle couldn't figure out. If he doesn't tell anyone (MATT DON'T FUCKING DO IT), then I think he might win this game. If he plays that idol at the right time, he can find himself in a position to protect himself or an ally, and win some key challenges to FTC. If he tells anyone (read: Jake), then his game is probably done. Jake has zero intention of taking Matt further than he needs to and will blindside the fuck out of him .

5. Taylor

Taylor is slowly putting in the time she needed to. She's creating some trust and people like talking to her. She's readily available and could break out and do her own thing in later rounds. Taylor is ripe for a big move, and she's the only player playing like she wants to win (other than Jake). Everyone else seems to be on some sort of cruise control. I still think Taylor can win this game, and I hope she plays these next few rounds very carefully.

6. Andrew

I had Andrew at the bottom of the list last time and now he's right in the middle. He lost his number one ally in Erica, which usually helps a player. He's had to scramble to make new relationships and it's showing. Some people are even a little shocked he has been talking to them as much. He's beginning to play the game and make some good calls. He's attempting to play both sides, but so is everyone in the game. Andrew was also the only person to correctly call out that the Erica vote was a fallacy. He clocked the whole Peak 5 situation and he will be rewarded at the end of the round when they reveal their true colors. He isn't at the top of anyone's list, but he's a number that people will want to use in future votes. I really want Andrew to do well, so I hope this is a fruitful round for him.

7. Kyle

Kyle's game is changing gears in a way I wasn't anticipating. His willingness to change his entire game and compromise his relationships to include Jake with all of these plans is starting to wear on him. I'm not sure if he can even tell, but his demeanor in his conversations with Jake is volatile. He will ask for Jake's approval and Jake will be pretty straight forward with him. Jake knows when to be emotional/playful and when to be down to business. I think that Kyle sees those lines blurred in some conversations and it feels stressful. I am still rooting for Kyle (and I would love to see him win), but he's sacrificing a lot of his game and I don't think he sees it. As of today, Racheal and Hannah want to target him this round. If he doesn't win immunity, we might see some votes on Kyle this round. He really needs Jake to leave this game, so he can refocus his priorities.

8. Hannah

Hannah, girl, you went on cruise control the last few days. You were doing SO WELL with keeping up on conversations, but everyone is slowly noticing that you aren't putting in time with them. Frances, Tyler, Jake, Kyle... they all notice that you're not tight with them nor are you even trying to be. It's OK you're not in their alliance, but you still need to entertain the fact that you have an open door to work with them in the late game. They don't see it and you might be gone in the next few rounds. I hope you notice this when an ally leaves this round how dire of a situation you're in, but it might be too late. UGH!!!!!!!!

9. Racheal

There's not much to add to Racheal from last round, other than she seems to be more open to thinking dynamically about the game. She's having more proactive conversations with Tatiana and Hannah, which is good for her. If/when Michael [might] leave this round, she will need someone to fall back on. As I mentioned last post, she needs to step up and make a move or have a strategical conversation with someone she hasn't yet. Shake things up a bit, girl!

10. Tyler

Tyler's frustrations with Jake fucking up his game are coming through. Tyler was in a group chat with Hannah/Michael/Racheal/Tati from Nuptse 2.0 and they resurrected it. He told Jake in confidence and Jake found an opportunity to drag him. Jake has been waiting for a moment like this to paint Tyler in a bad light and he got it. Tyler should try to stick with Taylor, in my opinion, but he's stuck trying to force a stronger relationship with Jake and Kyle. It's just too late for either of those guys to really dig their heels into working with him. Tyler might go this round because of this blunder, and it's all that Jake wants. The only confusing part of this equation is that if Tyler does go home, Peak 5 intentionally places themselves in a terrible position. However, as I've seen Jake do this before, Jake will sacrifice what's best for his game by ruining everyone else's. Tyler has Michael's idol, but he's not sure he needs to play it... it's a hard call.

11. Michael

Oof. You done JT'ed yourself, via HvV. That was the one thing you didn't want, yet, here we are. You need to win immunity this round, or I think there's going to be a group of 6 coming right at you. You think you're bringing in Matt, but you're bringing in a mole. Same with Tyler. Everyone you think that's going to help further your game is trying to punish your move from last round. I don't see how Michael recovers from this. (((((((((( dammit Michael.

Winner pick as of today: Jake. I know I mentioned the whole "big target" thing last round, but no one seems to give a fuck. They all want to work with him and they all want to give him what he wants. Jake, TAKE IT AND TAKE THIS GAME!

[benjimcfly]

Update:

Matt just told Jake about the idol.

RIP Matt. <3 Jake.

[benjimcfly]

Racheal and Kyle had quite an evening. Here's a live confessional from Racheal:

[benjimcfly]

This video has:

Kyle's apology attempt to Racheal ~10 minutes
Jake/Kyle for ~1 minute
Racheal/Hannah ~10 minutes

[benjimcfly]

People who are NOT tight with Jake, in order of how tight they are with him:

Michael
Tyler
Hannah
Racheal
Taylor
Frances
Matt
Kyle
Andrew
Tati

This is also my current predicted boot order. Jake in the end with Tati and Andrew. Jake wins 8-0-0

[ashley]

Dec 5, 2020 15:33:02 GMT -5 benjimcfly said:

People who are NOT tight with Jake, in order of how tight they are with him:

Michael
Tyler
Hannah
Racheal
Taylor
Frances
Matt
Kyle
Andrew
Tati

This is also my current predicted boot order. Jake in the end with Tati and Andrew. Jake wins 8-0-0

Please no....but please yes?

[benjimcfly]

THIS ALMOST HAPPENED lololol