Round 9 - Read the room

[Ricky]

Important Alliances Coming Into Merge

Peak 5

Frances
Kyle
Matt
Tyler
Taylor

The High Notes

Frances
Kyle
Taylor

MotherFucKers

Frances
Kyle
Matt

CoolCatz

Frances
Kyle

Nuptse Daisy

Hannah
Michael
Racheal
Tati

[Ricky]

Merge Write Up

13 players have made it to the merge, but two of them will not be in our jury this season. Here is a quick write up of each player and where they stand leading up to the merge tomorrow. 


Andrew - Andrew has been a great character this season but, so far, Andrew has not had much power in this game. Early on in the original Manaslu tribe Andrew met Erica and they formed a tight duo. However, another tight duo was forming at the same time (Frances and Kyle) who has more experience with ORGs so they were able to build better relationships with the other tribe members, like Taylor. All OG Manaslu tribes were easy votes (Brenden, Scott and Lamont) and while Andrew has been wanting Kyle out since day 1, he has not been successful. Andrew then swapped into Manaslu 2.0, where he found himself in the bottom alongside Patrick. However, while in this tribe Andrew met Jake who left a big impression on Andrew. Andrew's biggest allies right now are Erica and Jake. I don't know of anyone else who is that excited about working with Andrew. He might be one of our merge players who does not make the jury. 

Erica - poor Erica has gone to almost every tribal council this season. She is definitely one of my favorite players this season. Her time in OG Manaslu was mostly spent learning the ropes and creating a tight duo with Andrew. She was part of a girls alliance in OG Manaslu with Frances and Taylor but her relationship with Taylor has suffered since. In the first swap she was placed in Lohtse 2.0 where she met Shon and instantly hit it off. It seemed like this would be a great duo moving forward, but unfortunately Erica just lost Shon when he was voted off in the second swap. While in Lohtse 2.0 Erica went to tribal twice where she voted Becki and Christian off. Shon, Taylor and Erica were working together in this tribe and making the decisions. In the last tribal however, Taylor wanted Tito out instead of Christian and Erica wanted Christian out. This should not have created that much drama, however, Erica and Shon told Tito about Taylor wanting Tito out and this hurt Taylor and Erica's relationship. I don't see Erica and Taylor really working together at the merge. Erica's main ally is Andrew and she has been working on making new relationships in Nuptse 3.0. Should be noted that Erica wants Kyle out, while Kyle wants to work with Erica, which has been a running theme this season. If Erica survives the Markers twist round, I think she'll make it to mid merge as someone's number. Unfortunately, I don't think Erica can win this season. 

Frances - Frances has been in the tightest duo of the season with her number one Kyle. They have been on the same tribe the whole game, which has made their connection even stronger and for some reason a lot of people do not see Kyle and Frances as a duo, crazy. Frances has great relationships with everyone and her name has not really come up as an option to get rid of any time soon. Her time in OG Manaslu was spent creating relationships with everyone and solidifying her partnership with Kyle. Frances will be a main character of our merge. She is part of a group of 5 right now that will go far as long as they stick together. She also has the legacy advantage, which is only good at Final 8 tribal council. Frances has the potential for a late merge run and to even be in our final 3 this season. 

Hannah - Hannah has been playing a low key game this season - she's had the opportunity to play hard and find idols (i.e. Buzzword challenge) but has decided to take a step back and let other people do that. She has mostly relied on her social game to get this far. Everyone gets along with Hannah and she has really put in the time to build relationships with her tribemates which led her to the group of 4 with Michael, Tati and Racheal. However, I think we can expect Hannah to start showing us her strategic game very soon. There will be no more easy votes in the game and she will need to start making moves and showing her hand. Hannah's relationship with Jake and Tati should really help her get far in the merge since they are two very well connected players who will have a voice on who goes out the next few rounds. It should be noted though that Hannah has not met four of the players on the current Manaslu 3.0 tribe (Kyle, Frances, Matt and Taylor) and this could really hurt her in the merge. Hannah has the potential to make it far in the merge and even be in the final 3 this season. 

Jake - Jake has been playing a great game. He was in danger the only time his original tribe of Lohtse went to tribal, but thankfully for him, by the time that tribe went to tribal Sergio had created such a mess that everyone jumped on board to get rid of him. Jake then swapped into Manaslu 2.0 where he misted Kyle, Matt and Andrew and even got Matt to basically hand him an idol (STILL NOT OVER THIS DUMBASSS MOVE BY MATT) Jake then got swapped into Nuptse 3.0 where he SHOULD have been in trouble, but instead used the information he had to paint a HUGE target on Matt and reconnect with Tati and Hannah. He told anyone who would hear him out that Matt was a big threat to win this game and that Matt and Shon would be a powerful duo at the merge (wonder how much Shon going out last round hurt this narrative... guessing not much though since Matt is such a comp beast) Jake is in a very good position going into the merge. There are two sides forming right now, mostly along current tribal lines (Manaslu 3.0 and Nuptse 3.0) and both sides want to work with Jake. Jake will need to go after low hanging fruit like Tito (and maybe turn on Andrew) in order to not show his hand to either side. Either way, Jake is sticking around for the foreseeable future. Jake's blind spot is Tati. Tati has mentioned multiple times wanting to cut him, and yet Jake considers Tati his number one. I do not see him making our final 3 this season though, too many people are unto him. Jake is getting cut around final 5. 

Kyle - Kyle is playing a great game too. Kyle started in the Manaslu tribe where he quickly built bonds with key players in that tribe. Erica and Andrew tried to go after him very early on but because of his relationship with Taylor and Frances, Kyle was able to survive. Kyle has not been in any real danger since then. He has a great relationship with Frances and good one with Matt. He's also been working on solidifying his bond with Taylor and has been getting along very well with Tyler. Kyle is just a very likeable guy and his social game is really on point. His main blind spots are Erica and Jake, and to a certain degree Andrew. Kyle knows that Andrew isn't with him, but he goes back and forth as to whether Andrew should be voted out any time soon. Jake likes Kyle, but I don't think Kyle is in Jake's top 3 and Kyle really wants to work with Jake. His other blind spot is Erica. Erica and Andrew have been able to hide that they are a duo and this has left Kyle open to a potential blindside from Erica. Kyle is part of the new Peak 5 group, which is the largest group chat we've had this season. I think this will be a strong alliance at the merge. If Kyle can survive the threat from Andrew/Erica, he will be make it far. Definitely single digits, and maybe even final 4 or so. Kyle has still to meet Michael, Racheal and Hannah. 

Matt - the boy who handed the idol to the cute guy... just kidding. Matt has been playing a great game as well, but unfortunately he (with the help of Jake and Michael) has painted a huge target on his back with his challenge wins. Everyone knows Matt is really good at challenges and that's going to be the story line at the merge "Get rid of Matt because he will win out." Matt started in the OG Nuptse tribe where he was having a hard time really finding his ride or die. He ended up in an alliance with Scott and Patrick, two players who had "Pre jury" written all over them. Matt didn't really find his people until the first swap when he met Frances, Kyle and Jake. Matt's longevity in this game will depend on how much Frances, Kyle, Taylor and Tyler want to protect him. The current Nuptse 3.0 tribe won't shut up about how big of a threat he is. Michael and Racheal had even said they had no interest in working with him again, UNTIL Shon was voted out and they've been reassessing what to do about Matt. So safe to say that Matt's idea to turn on Shon and vote him out was the right move for him since Michael and Racheal are reconsidering whether they want to work with Matt. 

Michael - Michael started in Nuptse and quickly became very tight with Racheal. They have been together on the same tribe the whole game. However, as tight as they might seem, Michael keeps saying in his confessionals and prod chat that Racheal is only his number one by circumstance, which makes me think he might be willing to let her go earlier than needed. Also means this duo is not as tight as Frances/Kyle and Andrew/Erica. Michael has also shown his strategic side without painting a target on his back. The tie vote at the Scott tribal was in my opinion the right move, however, they should have told Tyler the votes were going on him, Tyler did not like being left out of that. Michael is obviously very smart and strategic but I do see him overthinking a move in the early part of the merge and that leading to his demise (likely at the hands of Jake). Jake has been hinting at the idea of a Michael vote already. Michael is also the most dispensable of the group of 4, Hannah and Tati will stay loyal to each other, and Racheal might not be able to save him. Matt is also suspicious of Michael - Tyler told Matt that Michael never mentioned wanting to work with Matt but did mention wanting to work with Shon - this has made Matt worried that Michael is not with him anymore. Michael does have an idol though, and if played right, he could do a lot of damage with it, and I hope he does - he could be the Jake slayer. I don't think Michael makes it past the live night (final 8), hope he proves me wrong.

Racheal - Racheal is one of the players that has surprised me the most this season. I pegged her as the first boot of OG Nuptse and I was completely wrong. Racheal has made it to the merge and very likely will make single digits. Racheal is tight with Michael, but she has not let that relationship be her sole alliance. She has put in the work with both Tatiana and Hannah and if she is left in the game without Michael I can easily see her protected by Hannah and Tati. Racheal's strong suit is her social game (everyone loves Racheal), her problem is that she's not showing the other players her strategic game and this can lead her to being a third place finalist with zero votes. At the same time, people she is not close to think of her as too closed off. Erica was annoyed that Racheal would not talk game with her the round Patrick was voted out. This obviously did not help Racheal, and Erica has pointed this out to both Andrew and Jake. Something I do want to note is that Racheal is the type of ally Michael needs. I think she calms him down when he gets very paranoid and I do think we would have seen some crazy moves from Michael if he did not have Racheal to steer him away from them. It would be interesting to see Racheal leave the game in the early part of the merge and see how Michael adjusts. 

Tatiana - Tati has been in a great spot all season long. Jake, Hannah, Michael, Racheal, Tyler and Tito all want to work with her. She's in the group of four with Hannah, Michael and Racheal, while at the same time very tight with Jake. Tyler and Tito can't wait to reunite with her. She's talked about getting rid of Jake many times, but Hannah has kind of steered her away from that. I still think Tati will do it or at least try, but it won't be for a while. She's now talking of using him as a shield, like everyone else is. As mentioned before, Tati is Jake's biggest blind spot and I would love to see her make a move against him. Her game is very similar to Racheal's, except she has more power based on her relationships; meaning her game is mostly social but Tati isn't part of a strong duo per se, she has cultivated strong relationships with a number of people and therefore has a lot of options going into the merge (and also has a lot of player's ears). Apart from Matt, Tati is the only other person who knows about Jake's idol, which could prove to be very helpful down the road. Tati can go very far this season, even make it to final 3. 

Taylor - big winner contender energy here. Taylor is playing a great game and has found herself in a great spot due to this last swap. She started off slow in OG Manaslu but did enough to build bonds with Frances, Erica and Kyle. As mentioned before, her relationship with Erica suffered during the Christian vote, which has pushed her closer to Frances and Kyle, two more powerful players than Erica. She has also created a good relationship with both Matt and Tyler. Tito is the only person in the game that doesn't like Taylor, but who cares about that right now? Very easy to see Taylor win the game, I just hope we get to see her make some moves on the way to the end.  

Tito - NO CLUE how Tito is still in this game! Matt literally saved him last round and Tito left Matt's one on one chat with him. I am not 100% sure where Tito fits in during the merge. He's definitely not with Matt or Taylor, and he could easily be a number for Hannah, Tati and Jake. Tito could be an easy boot at the merge or he might go far, I can't really tell how he's going to do. He hasn't shown enough of his game play for me to assess his chances. He's definitely a fun character, and he'll be a great foe for Taylor in her quest to make it to the end and win. 

Tyler - I am not sure what to make of Tyler's game right now. Tyler has connected with a good number of people, including Michael, Jake, Kyle and Matt. He's an OG Lohtse and Tati and Hannah are wondering if he will come back to their side and be one of their numbers, but Tyler is also part of the Peak 5 alliance (Frances, Kyle, Taylor, Matt and Tyler). I am not sure what Tyler's thoughts are right now regarding which side he really wants to work with. His decision might dictate how the first few rounds of the merge play out since he has a couple of options here. His game longevity will definitely rest on how he plays the next few rounds. I'm excited to see what Tyler does here and who he sides with. 


WINNER CONTENDERS: Hannah, Taylor, Matt, Jake and Kyle

[benjimcfly]

This is Benji's space for the merge post, although we did lose Tito last night to the twist boot RIP.

Now that we are down to just 12 players, I will commit to a round by round ranking and break down of each player. Here's my current rankings from "Best Position" to "Might be next voted out".

1. Tati

Tatiana is playing some of the strongest of this season. I don't want to say she is playing the best, necessarily, but she's playing her game the best. She's in good with everyone and only one other person realizes it - Hannah. While others might take note of her popularity, they aren't considering her a target. Her largest liability is Jake. Jake can and will start to rip away her allies if she isn't careful. Lucky for Tatiana, she is ready to cut Jake... but she's the only one.

2. Frances

Frances is in a good position, but she could easily get complacent. She has good working relationships with everyone, and is unsuspecting. She's doing better than Tati in how strong her strongest bonds are (Kyle, Taylor, Andrew, Jake, Matt, etc) but those she isn't close with are wary. I think she will be weakened as her allies leave, so she will need to change her gameplay as they leave the game.

3. Jake

Jake is doing what he does best: mist everyone. He's close with everyone and is already beginning the "I will tell you if someone is coming after you if you tell me". And it's working. Even though over half the cast know he's the biggest threat, he continues to push other narratives and they nod along. He is flirting his way to the end again, and, at this point, I think he might win again. The other players just don't want to win like he does. He's showing why he's one of the best to play XTC. The first time around, I was frustrated with the other players. This time around, I'm just head-over-heels-impressed with Jake's game.

4. Hannah

Hannah is playing a good game, but it's starting to get a little slow. By that, I mean she doesn't seem to progress any of her relationships. She might be able to squeak by to the end, but she will be up against some people who most likely had better formed relationships. She's good with Michael, Tati, Racheal, but Jake has been wanting her out since three weeks ago. She needs to work on making some moves with the right people.

5. Kyle

Kyle is such a lovable guy. His head is always in the game and he's always available to talk to people. He has a lot of strong bonds, but I'm most worried about his bond with Jake. He knows that Jake won his season by being in an alliance with everyone, and he is ignoring that pattern. Jake will tell him what he wants to hear, so it depends how he reacts once Jake lies to him. I am fairly certain that he will be sent packing in the next week or so and he won't know what hit him. That being said, I would love to see Kyle win this game. At this point, he's playing a fun easy game and not taking any shots.

6. Michael

I honestly don't know how to assess Michael. He's the player who probably has the best read in the game, but is also playing the most obvious game. He sees alliances, but he projects too much of it to the other players. His duo with Racheal is noticed by everyone. Michael might best succeed if he cuts Racheal, but he has mentioned going to rocks for her quite a bit. I'd like to see what sort of game he could play without her. Me thinks he might get blindsided, but it's still early. I'd like to see Michael make some tough decisions and make to FTC.

7. Taylor

Taylor is probably the only player in the game who has no one. She is good with a lot of people, but she's nobody's #1. This is either concerning or great for her. She will greatly benefit from people like Erica and Andrew leaving the game, but that's a lot to ask. You can tell she is ready to play and make a big move, but when no one is in your corner, she's at the behest of the rest of the cast. Taylor's game ultimately relies on how people are eliminated, which is a damn shame, as I think she's the best at reading this game.

8. Matt

Matt could elevate his game, as he has the social capital. His biggest problem is Jake. Jake took his idol from him (okay, Matt gave him the clue and walked away, but it's more fun to say Jake took it). Jake has also built an army who thinks Matt is the biggest threat in this game. I mean, he's pretty good at challenges? He doesn't have a lot of close allies, like Taylor. He's a spot below Taylor because Jake spread this "Matt is the player who is going to beat us all" propaganda. Matt needs to turn his game, but also downplay the threat he isn't. I'm not sure he can do it :\.

9. Erica

Of the players on this list, Erica has the highest potential to move up... or down. Everyone likes her and wants to talk more with her. They know she's solid and a reliable person. She's funny, she's real and she tells people what they need to hear. I fear she might get voted out because of her lack of connectivity to the cast... but when is this cast going to realize that fringe players like Erica are the players who help you get to the end (see Austin from XTC11). I'm holding out on hope that she will get picked up.

10. Tyler

Tyler is playing really well, but he is handicapped by the people he chooses to work with. He seems to be a second or tertiary choice for most to work with. I really wish Tyler would break away from telling Jake everything, but he's been with Jake since the start. It makes sense, but is unfortunate. I think he could be the swing vote to get Jake out in a future round. I have a feeling he will need to keep him because it works best for *his* game. And this is how we end up with Jake being the two time winner. Either way, Tyler is good with a lot of people, but not great. Kyle might be his saving grace.

11. Racheal

Racheal is too afraid to be explicit with how she wants to play this game. She only tells Michael, and everyone sees it. She will tell Hannah quite a bit, but it's never as much as what she gives to Michael. From here on out, Racheal's "goat timer" has started. She will either continue to play with her cards close to her chest and people won't know how to trust her. That leaves two options: get Racheal out in the next four votes OR she's going to final tribal council. It all depends how the dynamics change and who goes to tribal in the small group this round.

12. Andrew

Andrew isn't even in that bad of a position... it's just the easy vote. He's played a little emotional in some rounds, he's made enemies with Kyle and he has love eyes for Jake. The last bit there is fine, but it's clouding his game a little. He's trying to play a couple different angles, but it doesn't feel like it's the way everyone else is going. For my dollar, I would guess he is the next boot.

Winner Pick: I typed Jake then erased it.

Here's the deal with Jake: The season he won, he was constantly holding a meat shield in front of him. That can only last so long until everyone looks around and realizes the charming, cute, funny, returning winner is left. I don't see how he survives every vote. He isn't good at challenges, but if he wins out, then he wins.

I guess my winner pick is...

Tatiana .

[karen]

Noticing that Erica is the only BIPOC person left...

[karen]

Tyler has all the power to flip this shit if he wants to. It's risky, but would be interesting if he were to consider becoming a swing group of 3 with Erica and Michael if they could establish any sort of trust.

Would be most expected for him to stick with Peak 5 though... Definitely the least turbulent move.

[ashley]

When Matt and Hannah met for the second time  

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[ashley]

Also we had a grandma meeting followed by a show later that night...

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[ashley]

Show

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