Here are my player assessments, based on the days they were revealed:
Day 1
Frances
I'm excited to watch Frances play! That being said, after hearing everyone's initial assessment of her and how she plays, I am concerned of Frances getting in her own way. She definitely seems like the player who can win people over, but if she isn't careful, she could be the player who pushes others away. In order to see Frances get to the merge, I foresee her needing to find a number one ally in the first round. Ultimately, I think she will do it and we will see a late game surge from Frances.
Hannah
Hannah was a front runner to win XTC11 in the pre-game and she's sitting nicely at the top of my list right now, too. The biggest thing Hannah has going for her: she is 100% correct why she lost last season. She wasn't putting in her time with others and everyone noticed. Hannah is so damn likeable, they didn't get her out until a crazy round after the merge. Hannah needs to be confident and embrace that she isn't going to run the game (just like she mentioned in her intro video). If she can truly fix what she needs to change, she will finish in the top 5.
Andrew
Much like Hannah, Andrew is dependent on not getting duped by a cute boy. I have a feeling he will hold strong the first few rounds, but might fall victim to some of the cute boys come swap or merge. He's very funny and self-aware, and players with that much usually make it far down the road. Unfortunately, I see him being an early game threat and is taken out pre-merge.
Day 2
Jake
If there is anyone who can be the first two time winner of XTC, it's Jake. One of the major factors Jake had going for him on his first season: he had loyal, low impact players as his closest allies. If Jake can secure another ally (or two) that he can help him cut down threats, he has a chance to run the table again. With a 24 player field, I just don't see those weaker players making it far in the game. I have a feeling they will be easy targets for the frequent tribal councils we will see. Jake won't go quietly, so I do expect him to leave waves in the water if/when he leaves.
Scott R
Scott is a big brother fan. My biggest worry for BB-Fans as players is they forget how vulnerable the survivor format makes you, compared to BB. It isn't they truly "forget", but they are less inclined to sense a blindside. I have a feeling Scott will be compelling, but when he creates drama, he will forget that he can be voted out as a result. I hope I'm wrong, but I do see Scott being an early boot.
Becki
Becki has a lot of good energy coming from her intro video. Hearing what the VL has shared about Becki, I'm concerned with this large of a cast (especially those with a lot more experience than her), that she will become overwhelmed with the willingness of people to lie to her. Becki will need to be in the good graces of everyone, or else I'm concerned she could be seen as an early option for a vote, when push comes to shove. Becki's early game is going to determine her fate, although, I still see her being a pre-merge boot.
Day 3
Patrick
Pat has that BDE. It's hard to tell how he will be viewed by his tribe, but I don't think he's the type to fall into the background. Pat will probably be a leader for his tribe and that will help him secure the allies he needs. He seems like the meat shield a lot of experienced players look for. I could see him making a deep run in the game, but getting clocked in the top 10, once everyone realizes how liked he is.
Erica
I'm most nervous for Erica. Mostly because she seems to be carrying the "I'm a newbie who doesn't know what they're about to get into" energy. I hope that I'm way wrong OR I hope that it takes a quick blindside to wake her up (gaining some Brian energy from XTC: Mallorca). I don't think she will be an early boot, but she has potential to lock in that spot. She needs to *connect* with someone on the tribe, because I think it will be someone else that saves her in the earliest rounds.
Brenden
I don't know why, but I don't see Brenden going far. It isn't anything he's said or done, I just get the energy that he is going to go out in the earlier rounds. He felt slightly impersonable. I have this feeling he's going to have a bad round and it will be a round when people are looking for any reason to vote someone out. If I'm wrong, I honestly think he could play a deceitful game that can find himself at the merge. I don't see him making it past top 7.
Day 4
Jenn
Who isn't excited to see Jenn C play? This girl is the definition of Wild Card. Every game she plays, she has different intentions, different responses and a different mood. I'm not sure which Jenn is showing up, but she has seemed to perfect the formula to make it to the merge. I don't think others will see her as a threat, once they get to know her. However, she is absolutely a threat to go far. I see Jenn making merge and possibly a few enemies along the way.
Kyle
What a loveable guy! He's totally correct in his intro video in that people will like him. I even think a bad swap won't keep him down, because he has such a neutral/positive disposition. He seems to understand his threat level and uses self deprecation to keep his status in check. I am worried about him not investing in what's best for his game and rather what's more fun for him.
Matt
Matt is one of the big question marks for me. Not that I don't know how he will play (mostly loyal, well liked and well connected), but how others will use him/work with him in the game. I feel as though he needs to be more of an aggressive player than I saw him play in Endure. Not that he needs to be leading, but he should make decisions that are best for solely him, and not his alliances or duos. If he can help steer his game, I could see him making it very far. My prediction is he will at least make the merge, with a probability of going the distance.
Day 5
Shon
I know nothing about Shon, so this will be pure speculation. I see two paths: to FTC or a fiery pre-merge blaze. This all comes down to what type of game he is going to play. I have a feeling we will see Shon going the distance. If he could manage his threat level in an all star season, I'm sure he could do the same in this season. That being said, I honestly can't predict how he's going to play this season, but I am here for it!
Tito
Oh Tito. I think Tito will enter this game with a "big fish in a small pond" mentality. He has played a few ORGs recently and has connections, but I think his ego could get in the way of his game. He had mentioned to production that he ends up having a crush on a boy in ORGs. I see him getting misted and making a move that could compromise his alliances. Either way, he will be entertaining to watch
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Racheal
Racheal is another tough read. She could easily be the first boot, a goat to the end or a 4D chess master with 200 IQ plays. By the way, that list is ordered by most likely - in my opinion. All subjectivity aside, she's brand new. Like all of the other brand-newbies, she will need to understand how important it is to communicate with people in the game. Since she is a friend of Ashley's, of our production team, I hope she understands the level of commitment. If she does, I think she might end up an early pre-merge boot at best.
Day 6
Lamont
Lamont was probably my favorite player to host on Season 9. He is definitely a player for the viewer. He was confrontational (for better or worse), he was fairly active and he brought a lot of perspective to the game. Lamont and Jake played with each other, and I honestly think they both liked working with each other. That being said, Jake helped lead the charge to vote Lamont out. I hope to see Lamont get a little bit of a pay-back with Jake, although, I think he will be interested in working with, not against, Jake... if they meet. Otherwise, I expect Lamont to do fairly well. Hoping he can make the merge this season!
Tatiana Tatiana is probably one of the few players I cannot get a read on. She didn't project a lot of her personality in the intro video, at least not enough for me to know how she's going to play. Tati does seem to have a patient mindset and some of the VL seems to be familiar with her. I expect her to be one of the more successful "middle of the road" players. Meaning, I expect her to be a lot of people's #2 or #3. She will most likely have options and I see her making a run for the merge.
Sergio
Sergio has a lot to prove with this cast. Not only has he historically struggled early on with ORGs, he is up against some big personalities. All things considered, lots of personalities can lead to clashes. Sergio needs to find a crack early on to secure his placement. I think Sergio needs to rely on surviving the first few rounds before his potential in the game is maximized. His potential? To be a floater. I hate to say it, but with everyone else in this game, it would be detrimental if he goes outside of his comfort zone and tries to be the vocal leader. Ultimately, this comes down to challenges, one thing Sergio can help control. I hope he finds his footing as a strong performer in challenges, leading to success down the road in the game. If he attends lots of tribals, he might be in trouble as one of the first boots.
Day 7
Scott L
Scott! I am interested to see how he is going to play out this game. When I played with him on Season 8, he was very likeable and in control of his relationships. In the second game he played, he was a villain from start to finish and ran the table to FTC. Unfortunately, he was blindsided by a bitter jury. Scott knows how to lie, placate, and maneuver to the end of the game. I'm not sure if he knows how to balance all three and win. I do feel as though he can make a deep run in this game, but I think he might fade a little too far into the background and will be blindsided.
Chioma
I am so glad we go Chioma back this season! Chioma's first ORG was XTC season 10, and she started off MIA. She wasn't really around and wasn't talking to many people. After she was blindsided on the first vote, Chioma went off the rails and started calling shots. I'm hoping we get a Chioma that is somewhere in the middle. This girl is fierce and doesn't take shit from anyone. Much like Jenn C, she is a wild card in my book. Who knows how far she is going to get, but she is going to make waves in this game for sure.
Michael
Michael is one of the big question marks for me. His video wasn't completely revealing of how the VL has been describing him. I think he might be outshined by some of the personalities in his tribe, mostly Pat and Scott. I'm sure he will click well with the other players, so I anticipate him making to a pending swap. I would think if he gets swapped, he would be the type of player to jump on board with the newer people he is swapped with. If he positions himself in an Under the Radar position, I think he can easily make merge. Either way, I'm excited to be proved wrong by his gameplay!
Day 8
Christian
Christian is a tough sell for me, mostly because I was the person who interviewed him. The personality that came out on his intro video wasn't the same person I interviewed. All of that being said, I am chalking up this review of Christian to only his intro video and not his interview... If Christian plays his cards right, I think he can win this game. He's likeable (but not too likeable), he's rich with survivor knowledge, and he's not afraid to make big moves (okay, in his interview, he said: "I would rather make moves beneficial to the viewer, rather than the status of my game"). The only thing I could see is that big move ruining his game. If he makes the right big move, it could potentially put him in a position to win. Either way, I expect him making the merge and possibly FTC.
Taylor
Taylor is one of my picks to get far in this game. She is up against some strong returners, but I feel like her knowledge of the game and how she is going to play is paired well with her perceived threat level. She comes off as very tame and harmless. I think she has the tenacity and experience to handle some blindsides. I imagine her finding herself in some swing vote positions, and it's up to her to determine what's best for her game. Even if she doesn't, I feel she will be a high quality player. Looking for her to make top 5.
Tyler
I have had the pleasure of playing with Tyler twice. Both times there's one thing that shined through: he's very tuned in and he's good at competitions. While Tyler can come across robotic or rubbing some people the wrong way, I think he's active enough to give him a lot of grace at tribal councils. I'm not sure Tyler has the prowess to take out some of his bigger competitions, as Tyler seems to gravitate toward the stronger players. I think what will mostly help Tyler's game is if he is seen as a helper in an alliance, rather than the driver. Ultimately, I anticipate Tyler surviving through to the top 12.